长三角港口腹地动态演变及耦合协调度研究

明确港口腹地演变趋势、分析港腹耦合协调度,对长三角地区港腹联动发展具有重要意义。量化港口系统—腹地系统综合指标评价体系,运用高斯烟羽模型在2006、2011、2016年3个时间节点上测算长三角地区主要港口影响强度,并对腹地范围进行划分,利用耦合协调模型定量分析港口系统和直接腹地经济系统耦合协调度。研究结果表明:长三角地区港口呈现"一超多强"的格局,以上海港为中心,各港口多极发展;港口腹地范围整体稳定,局部波动,上海港的边缘腹地不断缩减;港口与腹地的耦合协调度处于上升态势,宁波—舟山港腹耦合协调度最高。     

我国区域农业生态文明及其协调度的时空分异研究——以典型省份为例

农业生态文明是我国生态文明建设的重要组成部分。由于我国区域自然生态条件、社会经济发展水平差异明显,农业生态文明的各项支撑要素也存在显著差异。文章在构建我国农业生态文明指数评价指标体系的基础上,基于离差系数原理构建区域农业生态文明协调度评价模型,选取黑龙江、河南、四川作为典型区域,运用2007~2013年统计数据,对3个省的农业生态文明指数及其协调度进行评价,并分析其各子系统支撑作用的演化特征。研究认为,我国开展生态文明建设以来,3个典型省农业生态文明指数及协调度均得到了显著提升,且均已先后进入"良好协调"阶段,但农业生态文明各子系统支撑作用演化的时空分异明显。因此,在推进农业生态文明建设过程中,应充分认识不同区域的发展水平、优势条件及薄弱环节,把握发展规律与特点,因地制宜、因区施策,提高农业产业发展与资源环境、社会经济条件的匹配度,改善和提升农业供给侧水平。     

Vertical alliance portfolios and the business performance of small technology-based firms

This paper discusses how small technology-based firms (STBFs) effectively manage vertical alliances by choosing proper alliance structures to both manage challenges and pursue higher performance. We consider the main challenges of STBFs’ vertical alliances as opportunistic risk and coordination concern between partners, and derive four types of vertical alliance portfolios with different extents of risk and return based on the relational perspective. We then examine the impact of each portfolio on performance and the moderating effect of STBFs’ age and technological capability. The results show the portfolio focusing on bilateral alliances is not helpful for STBFs, while the others are useful. The portfolio focusing on unilateral alliances promises young firms better performance, while hybrid portfolios of unilateral and bilateral alliances are more helpful for older STBFs. In hybrid portfolios, bilateral alliance in the upstream is beneficial to specific technology-focused firms, while bilateral alliance in the downstream is recommended to STBFs whose technology covers a wider range.     

Measurements and determinants of multifaceted poverty in South Africa

Poverty, despite being a multifaceted concept, is commonly measured in either absolute or relative monetary terms. However, it can also be measured subjectively, as people form perceptions on their relative income, welfare and life satisfaction. This is the first study that uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to analyse poverty across various objective and subjective methods. The paper finds that while respondents' poverty status varies across methods, blacks remain the racial group most likely to be defined as poor by at least one method. The multivariate analysis reveals that the impact of some explanatory variables, such as experience of negative events, frequency of crime victimisation, health status and importance of religious activities, is mixed across methods.     

扬州市生态农业发展评价及预测研究

［目的］农业是国民经济的基础产业，发展生态农业是实现农业经济稳步增长的重要途径，也是我国发展现代农业的战略选择。对生态农业的现状进行评估，以期以此为依据为今后的发展提供可行性建议。［方法］文章研究从经济效益、社会效益和生态效益3个方面构建了包含14个指标在内的扬州市生态农业发展评价指标体系，并采用熵权法和加权法综合评定2011—2016年该市生态农业发展的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益及综合效益得分，在此基础上采用GM（1， 1）灰色模型对2018—2027年扬州市生态农业的发展程度进行了预测。［结果］2011—2016年扬州市生态农业发展的社会效益呈持续增长态势， 2011—2015年经济效益呈上升趋势， 2016年经济效益明显下降。生态效益分别在2012年和2016年出现两次波动。总体来看， 2012—2015年扬州市生态农业发展的综合效益逐年递增， 2016年由于经济效益的急剧降低，导致综合效益下降。2018—2027年该市生态农业的发展水平一直保持可持续状态，且发展度在逐年递增。［结论］扬州市在今后的发展过程中应注重转变生产方式，积极调整农业生产模式，努力实现农产品的集约化生产。注重环境保护，实现化肥农药使用量零增长，达到经济效益与社会效益和生态效益协调增长。     

Pay dispersion among the top management team and outside directors: Its impact on firm risk and firm performance

Two key groups central to improving firm performance are the top management team (TMT) and the board of directors. Executives undertake strategic actions, whereas board members fulfill their resource provision and monitoring roles. Drawing on tournament theory and equity theory, we propose that high pay dispersion among outside directors and the TMT is positively associated with strategic risk, whereas high (low) TMT pay dispersion and low (high) outside director pay dispersion are positively associated with firm performance. Our predictor is the unexplained component of horizontal pay dispersion, or the residual of pay dispersion resulting from regressing pay on observable firm, industry, period, and individual characteristics. Our results highlight the importance of unexplained pay dispersion for TMTs, but not for boards of directors, in improving firm performance.     

The Coordination Role of Stress Tests in Bank Risk‐Taking

We examine whether stress tests distort banks' risk‐taking decisions. We study a model in which a regulator may choose to rescue banks in the event of concurrent bank failures. Our analysis reveals a novel coordination role of stress tests. Disclosure of stress‐test results informs banks of the failure likelihood of other banks, which can reduce welfare by facilitating banks' coordination in risk‐taking. However, conducting stress tests also enables the regulator to more effectively intervene banks, coordinating them preemptively into taking lower risks. We find that, if the regulator has a strong incentive to bail out, stress tests improve welfare, whereas if the regulator's incentive to bail out is weak, stress tests impair welfare.     

40CrNi_2Si_2MoVA钢棒材晶粒度控制

随着科技的进步与发展,以改变合金成分提高超高强度钢的强度和韧性已经很困难。本文以40Cr Ni2Si2Mo VA钢为例,探讨了通过控制晶粒度尺寸提高钢强度和韧性的方法。     

Changes in risk and strategic interaction

In this paper we study the comparative statics of Nth degree stochastic dominance shifts in a large class of non-cooperative games. We consider symmetric equilibria as well as asymmetric equilibria in which the risk changes are idiosyncratic and not necessarily of the same stochastic order. Furthermore, we establish conditions for risk changes to produce multiplier effects on equilibrium strategies. Finally, we evaluate the comparative statics of stochastic dominance shifts in supermodular games, which may feature multiple equilibria and non-convex strategy sets.     

旅游产业与县域经济耦合协调发展研究 ——来自桂林阳朔县的经验证据

旅游业可以带动县域经济的发展,但也要依靠一定程度的经济作为基础支撑,如何协调好两者的均衡发展,关系到旅游产业与县域经济的耦合协调问题。以阳朔县为研究对象,采用协整分析、误差修正模型以及耦合协调度分析的方法对2004年至2018年阳朔县旅游产业和经济的关系和耦合协调性进行研究。结果表明：旅游产业和经济之间存在长期均衡的关系,经济的短期波动受旅游产业的短期波动以及误差修正项的影响；旅游产业和经济在观测期间由轻度失调逐渐转变为良好协调的状态。